Nathan’s Famous: Hot Diggity Dog.
I checked out the small (but famous) hot dog maker, Nathan’s (NATH), a few weeks back and liked what I saw going into the company’s annual hot dog eating contest. Yes, the shares have spiked following earnings and on some excitement leading up to the contest, but I still think the shares represent a compelling long-term investment.
For starters, as largely a franchiser (the company only operates a few stores itself), Nathan’s has been generating lots of cash for years and has low capital expenditure requirements. Back a few weeks ago, at some 12x cash flow (it’s now around 15x) it was available at a great price. Revenue has been compounding at a steady albeit low clip of around 7%, but operating margins have improved from 13% to over 18% since 2003. Debt is nonexistent, and returns on average equity using cash flow rather than earnings have been a respectable 15-20% in recent years.
That’s all great, but here’s what I really like. First, the company has plenty of room to grow. With operations in only 22 states and a tiny footprint in just 10 other countries, there’s tons of room for opportunity. That in itself is not enough to justify excitement, but what’s great about franchises with simple businesses, particularly food and retail chains, is that they generally can duplicate success to achieve growth and advantages of scale simply by copying itself in a different geographic location. Though cultural differences surely play some role in an region’s tastes for fast food, it’s unlikely, at least in America, that a great hot dog in the Northeast wouldn’t be enjoyed by folks in the Southwest. Branching abroad may be a bit harder in countries that don’t know the brand or don’t exactly enjoy hot dogs, but I give kudos to management for setting their sites internationally for growth.
The company also enjoys a unique niche in the fast food industry and can really leverage its growing popularity thanks to the Coney Island hot dog eating contest and other generally successful marketing strategies. Despite how unsexy or commonplace a hot dog may seem, I can’t seem to think of a storefront-based company with a bigger presence or more popular brand name associated with hot dogs. Companies like this often benefit from compounding popularity and success. Just like Subway, Starbucks, etc., Nathan’s should be able to enjoy growth from a feedback loop where popularity drives growth, which drives more popularity and recognizability, which drives further growth, and so on.
Of course, I’m not claiming Nathan’s is “The Next Starbucks,” but with no coverage, a tiny market cap, plenty of room for upside, and the potential for compounding success, I like it as a long-term play. I also think it’s only slightly above the low side of my pretty conservative valuation, which places the fair value of the shares at anywhere between $16 and $32 depending on growth rate assumptions. I think a “best case” valuation could place the shares as high as $42. Regardless, great business + strong growth potential + fair price = solid returns over time.


T. Webb said,
July 10, 2007 @ 10:40am
Like the better mouse trap, they’ll ALWAYS be room for the better hot dog. And no one makes a better one than Nathans Famous.
Also (not mentioned)…NATH also owns “Arthur Treachers Fish and Chips” and “Kenny Rogers Roasters”.
Very nice article…Thank you.
Will W. said,
July 10, 2007 @ 11:08am
Interesting analysis, and great blog overall, Joe. This is the first time I’m visiting, and it’s pretty impressive. Also like the wikinvest page.
With the original Nathan’s being in my backyard, I think the popularity of the chain has skyrocketed thanks to the eating contest, even in the past few years alone. Whereas when I first entered college none of my suitemates had even heard of Nathan’s, I had friends this year inform me of Kobayashi’s “injury” leading up to the competition.
I don’t know too much about valuing stocks but I do like hot dogs and I agree that it has to potential to be the defining hot dog vendor in the same way that coffee and low-fat sandwiches are associated with Starbucks and Subway — but only if it wants to. I have never come across a Nathan’s TV or radio advertisement, and it’s never seemed interested in the same sort of aggressive marketing strategies as those other companies.
Just some thoughts while I’m bored at work. On a completely different note, happy belated birthday.
Hank K said,
July 25, 2007 @ 6:23pm
Great evaluation of Nathans. The upside seems basically unlimited with regard to its franchise growth in the US. Everybody loves Hot Dogs….not to mention their french fries are the best! Just today I heard a number of radio commercials on WFAN. On a recent trip to Yankee Stadium, Nathans is one of the main advertisers on the side scoreboards. Who knows……..maybe McDonalds or BK will buy them out!